Interview with the authors: Background selection and FST: Consequences for detecting local adaptation

Recent work has suggested that background selection (BGS) may lead to incorrect inferences in FST outlier studies, generating substantial concern given the prevalence of these studies in evolutionary biology. In their recent Molecular Ecology publication, Matthey‐Doret and Whitlock investigate the effects of BGS on FST outlier tests using biologically realistic simulations, and find minimal effects. Matthey-Doret and Whitlock suggest that previous studies used unrealistic parameter values in simulations, leading to an overestimate of the effects of BGS in real studies. Read the full article here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/mec.15197, and get a behind-the-scenes look at this work below.

Remi Matthey‐Doret uses his new program SimBit to study the effects of background selection (BGS) on FST.

What led to your interest in this topic / what was the motivation for this study? 
It all started with a paper by Cruickshank and Hahn (2014), in which they highlight a fear that background selection could be a confounding factor to local adaptation in FST outlier studies. Curious about this issue, Mike and I investigated the question further and quickly figured that many of these fears were based on misinterpretation of Charlesworth et al. (1997). Indeed, Charlesworth et al. (1997) demonstrated that background selection can cause FST peaks for extreme and unrealistic parameter sets only. They highlighted that their parameter choice was unrealistic as their goal was to find extreme effects, but this important limitation of their study was sadly often ignored by their readers. We therefore decided to perform simulations of background selection with realistic parameter choices.

What difficulties did you run into along the way? 
The main difficulty was technical. We tried to run these simulations with a number of popular simulation softwares but none of them were fast enough for our needs. We quickly realized that we had to write our own simulation software (SimBit) that would have a very high performance especially for simulations with a lot of genetic diversity. 

What is the biggest or most surprising finding from this study? 
Starting the study, I was actually expecting that background selection would have a stronger effect on FST and that it would bias FST outlier methods to detect local adaptation. Our finding was a surprise to us, but it was also comforting to realize that the results of the many studies using FST outlier methods were probably not affected by background selection. 

Moving forward, what are the next steps for this research? 
I think there is a need for a clarified view of the relative importance of positive and negative selection in explaining patterns of genetic diversity within and between populations. Also, I would wish to investigate further the interaction between selection coefficient and migration rate and how it affects within and between population genetic diversity. Such an endeavor would likely require a mixture of empirical and theoretical work.

What would your message be for students about to start their first research projects in this topic?  
I think there is a lot of intuition about the effect of linked selection in structured populations that has not been published. Talk to smart people! They may have some expectation about how background selection can affect the coalescent tree in structured populations that needs to be studied and written out.

What have you learned about science over the course of this project? 
I learned that a lot of the numeric tools that we use to analyse genetic data contain bugs (one of which is detailed in our article) and untold (or somewhat neglected) assumptions. One must always be very careful to have a good understanding about a particular statistical software before using it.

Describe the significance of this research for the general scientific community in one sentence.
We found that background selection does not cause peaks of population differentiation and therefore that methods that use population differentiation to detect positive selection should be safe to be used without worry of background selection being a confounding factor.

Describe the significance of this research for your scientific community in one sentence.
We found that background selection does not cause much variation in locus-to-locus variation in FST and therefore FST outlier methods to detect positive selection should be safe to be used without worry of background selection being a confounding factor.

Full article:

Matthey‐Doret R, Whitlock MC. Background selection and FST: Consequences for detecting local adaptation. Mol Ecol. 2019;28:3902–3914. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.15197.

Interview with the authors: Evidence for rapid evolution in a grassland biodiversity experiment

Our ability to detect rapid evolution at the level of the genome has improved dramatically over the past decades, driven in part by advances in sequencing technology. It is now possible to detect small genetic differences in a population in just a few generations. This ability has stimulated many questions surrounding the causes and processes of rapid evolution. For example, how is the evolutionary trajectory of a species affected by the diversity of the surrounding community? In their recent Molecular Ecology paper, Dr. Sofia J. van Moorsel and colleagues quantify genetic and epigenetic differences across a set of plant species in the long-term Jena Experiment in Germany, which aims to test the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning. Read below for a behind-the-scenes look at their study.

Link to the study: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/mec.15191

The Jena Experiment in Jena, Germany. This is where the plants had been growing for a decade in their respective communities. The mixtures are not only more productive, but also more photogenic.

What led to your interest in this topic / what was the motivation for this study? 
Previously we had found that offspring of plants from the same species that had been growing either in monoculture or mixture for an extended period of time showed clear phenotypic differences in common environments. We thought that selection in response to community diversity was driving these observations. If selection was occurring, we would find genetic differences between individuals of the same species either from a monoculture or mixture background. However, at the time it was suggested that potentially epigenetics were the source of the observed effects (Tilman & Snell-Rodd 2014). Considering the current interest in the potential role of epigenetics in ecology we wanted to state an example by analyzing our monoculture and mixture phenotypes with a new combined method.

Measuring the traits of the plants in our glasshouse experiment. These are the plants we took the samples from for subsequent sequencing.

What difficulties did you run into along the way? 
In terms of the lab work and bioinformatic analysis, the method we used was still very new, so we needed to update and improve it along the way. Also, we focused perhaps too much on the hypothesis that the observed evolutionary differentiations could have “simply reflected epigenetic effects”. However, when we found clear genetic effects, we realized that this makes it more difficult to detect independent epigenetic effects, in particular because we could not analyze whole epi-/genomes. Further this research was a collaboration between two labs from two different countries. Consequently, we had to organized exchange visits to do lab work and discuss results. Lastly, the publication process is always accompanied with frustrations and hurdles, but thanks to fantastic teamwork and a healthy dose of perseverance we made it!

What is the biggest or most surprising finding from this study? 
The most surprising finding was that for four out of five perennial (!) plant species selected in monoculture vs. mixture were genetically distinct already after 10 years (with at least two experimentally ensured reproductive cycles). We showed that rapid evolution can happen in plant communities after only a small number of generations. Previously it was thought that evolution happening at ecological time scales was either largely limited to organisms with very short generation times (i.e., microbial species) or in macro-organisms like plants limited to non-genetic effects. Even though some of us were critical about the role of epigenetics to start with, most of us were still intrigued that genetic divergence was so clear and that it could explain almost all epigenetic variation.

Measuring traits, harvesting the biomass and taking samples was a big team effort. Which also made it more fun.

Moving forward, what are the next steps for this research?
Reduced-representation sequencing will never be able to exclude with certainty that epigenetic effects are entirely due to genetic differences at a place in the genome far away and thus possibly not sequenced. Ideally, we could do whole-genome bisulfite sequencing to get more to the bottom of all of this. We only sequenced about 2% of the genome, so potentially we have overlooked some important genes affecting DNA methylation. One next step would be selection experiments with clonal replicates of our perennial plants. However, this would also set epigenetic variation to zero and selection would have to use variation arising by new epigenetic mutations, whereas it may be more conceivable that epigenetic differentiation results from “sorting out” standing epigenetic variation.

What would your message be for students about to start their first research projects in this topic?
First of all: forge collaborations. This paper would not have been possible, if we had not met at a conference. If you hear a talk of somebody at a conference or at your department, even if you do not see an immediate potential for collaboration, approach the speaker and tell them about your research. They are likely equally interested in your things as you are in theirs. Further, following the more unconventional research avenue pays off, even when it sometimes might take a little longer getting a paper accepted for publication. Specific to our topic, we would definitely recommend adding an evolutionary twist to classic plant community ecology, it’s an emerging field and it’s always exciting to be among the first researchers to enter a new topic.

Measuring traits in the glasshouse with help of the amazing Enrica De Luca and Nadia Castro.

What have you learned about science over the course of this project? 
Interdisciplinarity, even the small one between ecologists, molecular biologists and bioinformaticians is challenging but highly rewarding. Clearly, hot topics, such as epigenetics in ecology, are not free from differences in beliefs. Here we were juggling many different perspectives both among co-authors and among reviewers. It forced us to find a balance, which is also testimony for the importance of a broad-scale review process (five reviewers and a very engaged associate editor).

Describe the significance of this research for the general scientific community in one sentence.
Rapid genetic but not epigenetic adaptation among plant species in mixtures means that we cannot predict community functioning by studying species in isolation and that we should conserve and restore entire communities and not individual species.

Citation
van Moorsel SJ, Schmid MW, Wagemaker CA, van Gurp T, Schmid B, Vergeer P. (2019). Evidence for rapid evolution in a grassland biodiversity experiment. Molecular Ecology, 28(17), 4097-4117. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/mec.15191

Summary from the authors: 31° South: The physiology of adaptation to arid conditions in a passerine bird

Karoo scrub-robin (Cercotrichas coryphaeus) in its typical arid habitat in southern Africa. Photo by Krista N. Oswald.

Written by Ângela M. Ribeiro

Arid environments are ecosystems of energetic stringency. Their typical high temperatures, low primary productivity, and unpredictable water availability prove physiologically challenging for birds. How these vertebrates cope with such harshness remains a conundrum in physiological evolutionary biology. While physiological adaptation likely involves energetic metabolic phenotypes, the underlying mechanisms (plasticity, genetics) are largely uncharacterized. To explore this, we developed a intra-specific level framework (Figure 1) that links environmental conditions, phenotypes and genotypes in a passerine bird whose range spans an aridity gradient. We found variation in energetic physiology phenotypes (a measure of energy expenditure) and gut microbiota composition (involved in energy retrieval from food) to be associated with environmental features and identified a small list of candidate adaptive genes. By working at the interface of physiology and genomics, we suggest that selective pressures on energetic physiology mediated by genes related to energy homeostasis and possibly with contribution of gut microbiota may facilitate adaptation to local conditions. Ultimately, our findings offer a possible explanation to the high avian intra-specific divergence observed in harsh environments, raises awareness that accounting for intra-specific variation is fundamental when modeling physiological responses to climate change, and provides a stepping-stone for further research into the mechanisms of phenotypic adaptation to aridity.

Figure 1. Conceptual framework to infer the mechanisms of physiological adaptation to aridity: linking environment (climate and primary productivity), phenotype (organism-level energetic metabolism: basal metabolic rate and metabolic expansibility; microbiome composition) and genotype (genetic variation in genes underlying the biochemical machinery of energy production).

Link to paper: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/mec.15176

Ribeiro ÂM, Puetz L, Pattinson NB, Dálen L, Deng Y, Zhang G, da Fonseca RR, Smit B, Gilbert MT. (2019). 31° South: The physiology of adaptation to arid conditions in a passerine bird. Molecular Ecology. 2019. 28-16. 3709-3721.

Interview with the authors: Anthropization level of Lascaux Cave microbiome shown by regional‐scale comparisons of pristine and anthropized caves

Estimated to be around 17,000 years old, the Paleolithic paintings in the Lascaux cave of southwestern France give us a rare insight into the history and culture of communities that existed long before modern society. The conservation of caves such as Lascaux is a high priority for historians, scientists, and the general public. The anthropization, or human use, of caves may have dramatic effects on cave-dwelling macro- and micro-organisms, though few studies have been conducted on this topic. By comparing ‘pristine’ caves with anthropized caves frequently visited by humans, Dr. Lise Alonso and colleagues demonstrate that the anthropization of caves is associated with reduced microbial diversity for bacteria and archaea living on cave walls, though microeukaryotes and arthropods were not as strongly affected. In this post, we go behind-the-scenes with Dr. Yvan Moënne-Loccoz on their recent publication in Molecular Ecology and talk about the importance and challenges of working in cave ecosystems.

Link to the study: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mec.15144

Great Hall of the Bulls in Lascaux Cave. The cables connect to monitoring probes. Source: DRAC Nouvelle Aquitaine

What led to your interest in this topic / what was the motivation for this study? 
Cave conservation is an important issue, especially when dealing with caves displaying Paleolithic artwork, as engravings and particularly paintings can be very fragile. There are many of these caves in Dordogne (South-West of France), some of them listed on the UNESCO World Heritage List (https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/85). The most famous Paleolithic cave in Dordogne is the Lascaux Cave, which was closed to the public in the 1960s for conservation reasons. To guide conservation efforts, it is important to understand the ecology and functioning of these caves, especially at the levels of microorganisms and arthropods, which form the main communities present. Against this background, the project was carried out to understand better the biotic communities residing in Lascaux Cave.

Entrance of Lascaux Cave. Source: DRAC Nouvelle Aquitaine

What difficulties did you run into along the way? 
When dealing with microorganisms and arthropods populating soils, sediments or water, in a majority of cases it is rather straightforward to collect samples and there is no restriction on sample size. In caves, taking samples from walls for microbial analyses, using a scalpel, may leave long-lasting marks. This is an issue in all caves, and particularly so in Paleolithic caves. In the Lascaux Cave, the sample list was prepared after discussions with the cave staff and approved by the cave conservator, and the samples were collected (away from ornate surfaces) by qualified restorers, under the guidance of microbial ecologists, so as to avoid any marks on the wall. It also means that only minute samples were available. Restrictions also apply for the type and location of arthropods traps, as sediments at the bottom of caves might contain historical artefacts.

Sampling of rock wall surface in a pristine cave, using a sterile scalpel. Source: B. Bigaï

What is the biggest or most surprising finding from this study? 
Caves are oligotrophic environments, so it is always a surprise to find diversified, rather large microbial communities on cave walls. In this study, the Lascaux Cave was compared with eight other caves from the same region, and these caves were quite different from one another in terms of size, architecture, distance from the soil surface, presence/absence of stream underground, human frequentation patterns, etc. Yet, there were clear distinctions in terms of microbial and arthropod communities when comparing anthropized caves versus non-anthropized (almost pristine) caves, which suggests that anthropization was more influential than these cave-specific features. Finally, we were rather surprised to find that prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea) were comparatively more impacted than eukaryotic residents (fungi, other micro-eukaryotes, arthropods) by cave anthropization.

Pristine cave used for sampling. Source: Y. Moënne-Loccoz

Moving forward, what are the next steps for this research?
This work was carried out with the Lascaux Cave and eight other caves from Dordogne, which corresponds to a relatively small area. There were at the most 35 km between two caves in this study. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the results of the current investigation are also relevant elsewhere. At a larger geographic scale, several differences in cave properties can be expected, for instance in geological features (e.g. limestone type) and climatic conditions, which have the potential to influence cave biotic communities. In addition, we evidenced parallel variations in the diversity of microbial and arthropod communities, and it will be important to explore and understand better the ecological interactions between both types of cave inhabitants.

What would your message be for students about to start their first research projects in this topic?
First of all, the underground world and the interface between ecology and artwork conservation issues are fascinating, so welcome to the field! More importantly, each cave is different and represents a complex situation of its own, so one can be very busy focusing on a single cave only. This is reflected by the literature on cave microbial ecology, where often a single cave is considered at a time. However, we found that the comparison of different caves, following the path of various groups (e.g. Campbell et al. 2011 J Cave Karst Stud 73:75 ; Hathaway et al. 2014 Geomicrobiol J 31:205 ; De Mandal et al. 2017 BMC Microbiol 17:90 ; Pfendler et al. 2018 Sci Tot Environ 615:1207), brought very interesting insights, so comparative assessments are worth the effort.

What have you learned about science over the course of this project? 
The majority of participants to this project usually work on soil or aquatic ecosystems, and we found (once again) that concepts and methodology are applicable across different types of ecosystems. More specifically, we realized that underground systems represent interesting models to investigate ecological perturbations, because they are rather confined environments, where community fluctuations in response to mild environmental variations can be documented.

Describe the significance of this research for the general scientific community in one sentence.
This research shows that microbiome diversity can be used as a bioindicator of the level of cave anthropization.

Citation
Alonso L, Pommier T, Kaufmann B, Dubost A, Chapulliot D, Doré J, Douady CJ, Moënne‐Loccoz Y. Anthropization level of Lascaux Cave microbiome shown by regional‐scale comparisons of pristine and anthropized caves. Molecular Ecology, 28(14), 3383-3394. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mec.15144

Summary from the authors: Selection at behavioural, developmental and metabolic genes is associated with the northward expansion of a successful tropical colonizer

Link to paper: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mec.15162

Picture: Green Anole Lizard (Anolis carolinensis) on railing in Hilo, Hawaii. Author: Paul Hirst. CC-BY-SA-2.5

The green anole (Anolis carolinensis), also called the American chameleon due to its ability to change color, is a common species in South-East USA. It has been studied for decades to understand how reptiles adapt to their environment.  Unlike other species of its genus, its range encompasses territories outside tropical climate, reaching the winter-exposed flanks of the Appalachians. The green anole colonized these colder regions from Florida in the last 300,000 years. We used DNA variation covering the whole genome and contrasted populations having recently colonized colder territories with the ones from tropical Florida. We compared multiple approaches to detect which segments in DNA sequences harbored variation compatible with selection. Since these signatures can also be produced by past demography, we took the latter into account to limit the detection of false positives. We then identified the most likely function of genes overlapping with candidate regions for selection, and observed that many of those were involved in exploratory behavior, immunity and response to cold. This suggests that the success of green anoles may have been due to changes in both physiology and behavioral shifts, a hypothesis that could be further tested experimentally.

Yann Bourgeois and Stephane Boissinot

Bourgeois, Y., & Boissinot, S. (2019). Selection at behavioral, developmental and metabolic genes is associated with the northward expansion of a successful tropical colonizer. Molecular Ecology. 2019. 28-15. 3523-3543

Interview with the authors: High indirect fitness benefits for helpers across the nesting cycle in the tropical paper wasp Polistes canadensis

Understanding how complex social systems evolve is a long-standing and challenging goal of evolutionary biology. Many animal taxa are eusocial, where individuals forego reproduction in order to help raise young produced by another member their group. This behavior only makes sense if there are potential benefits – either direct or indirect – to the helpers. The genus of paper wasps Polistes is commonly used as a model system for studying sociality, however most of the research on this group has been conducted in temperate ecosystems, whereas relatively little is known about their behavior in tropical ecosystems where the genus likely originated. Does our understanding of how direct and indirect benefits contribute to the evolution of complex social systems depend on the environment where we conduct the research? Below, we go behind the scenes with Emily Bell and Robin Southon on their latest paper in Molecular Ecology to find out.

Link to the study: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mec.15137

Polistes canadensis nest. Photo by RJ Southon.

What led to your interest in this topic / what was the motivation for this study? 
Wasps provide a fascinating insight into the evolution of sociality; among them you can find various levels of social complexity ranging from solitary to highly eusocial. Many studies have focused on the emerging model organism Polistes dominula. An interesting aspect of this wasp’s behaviour is that female ‘foundresses’ often form new nests in the spring with unrelated individuals – they help even though reproductive skew is monopolised by a single female. However, this is unlikely to be true in tropical species. Tropical Polistes do not experience an overwinter break in the colony cycle, and highly related foundresses may form new nests together directly from their previous natal nest. We wanted to highlight that although Polistes species share many traits, such as high reproductive skew, fitness payoffs for nonreproductive foundresses in temperate and tropical species are unlikely to be equivalent. This is an important consideration in making conclusions about the evolution of group living within the genus – Robin Southon

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mec.15137

What difficulties did you run into along the way? 
With most field work it comes down to logistical issues. Along the Panama Canal are many ‘wasp havens’ – abandoned buildings containing a high density of nests. Which is great, unless you happen to live on the other side of the canal to your field site. There is one bridge that crosses the canal near our site, which is only accessible when boats are not passing through the nearby lock. This takes many hours for giant container ships! We’d spot ships approaching from afar and try to beat them to the lock in time to cross. Although if we missed our chance, at least all our datasheets were processed and backed up in the downtime – Robin Southon

Beating a container ship to the lock. Photo by EF Bell.

What is the biggest or most surprising finding from this study? 
In large established nests a reproductive monopoly is held by one queen. Our SNP and microsatellite pedigree analyses of post-emergence nests revealed in nearly all nests brood belonged to a single queen. Control over reproduction in Polistes is maintained primarily through physical aggression, and in the case of small temperate nests there is relatively few nestmates to dominate. However, nests of the tropical Polistes canadensis can reach 200+ in membership. It seems unlikely the queen could physically aggress that many wasps in a network! It would be interesting to see what other mechanisms may be at play, such as vibrational or odour signalling – Robin Southon

Moving forward, what are the next steps for this research?
We have established that there are differences in founding group structure between Polistes from different environments, but it’s rather simplistic to look at such differences as tropical vs temperate. There will be exceptions in both environments, for example montane ecosystems. The next step should look at what exactly is it about these environments that influence founding behaviour. Studying wasps in subtropical climates is likely to be key, especially in looking at species that have distributions which transition through tropical, subtropical, and temperate regions – Robin Southon

What would your message be for students about to start their first research projects in this topic?
Do your background research before you start a new project – literature reviews are an invaluable learning experience. They act as a chance for you to explore your new field and come up with lots of ideas for where you may want to take your project over your studies. Wasps are an amazing organism to work with, fascinating life history and captivating to watch in the field. I would wholehearted recommend taking a chance to observe your species in their natural habitat, if that is possible. It will enable you to learn what techniques might work for your project and novel ways that you could implement techniques in the field – Emily Bell

What have you learned about science over the course of this project? 
Molecular work is never straight forwards, it takes time (lots of time) to perfect methodologies – problem solving is a key skill that will always help with this. Sharing troubleshooting ideas with your lab group and other experts in departments is a brilliant way to learn new ways to analyse data. Once you have got a technique that works it really is such a satisfying experience and so exciting to be able to explore your species in a totally new way
– Emily Bell

Describe the significance of this research for the general scientific community in one sentence.
Environment influences the membership composition of new groups, resulting in varied group genetic structure and fitness payoffs for nonreproductive helpers in Polistes paper wasps – Robin Southon

Citation
Robin J. Southon, Emily F. Bell, Peter Graystock, Christopher D. R. Wyatt, Andrew N. Radford, & Seirian Sumner (2019). High indirect fitness benefits for helpers across the nesting cycle in the tropical paper wasp Polistes canadensis. Molecular Ecology, 28(13), 3271-3284. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mec.15137

Interview with the author: A hierarchical Bayesian Beta regression approach to study the effects of geographical genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation on species distribution range shifts

Forecasting the effects of global climate change on species distributions is a major challenge with direct relevance for conservation, management, and policy. Incorporating genetic information into these models may help improve these predictions by accounting for within-species variation in demographic history and adaptation to local environments. In a recent issue of Molecular Ecology Resources, Dr. Joaquín Martínez-Minaya and colleagues present a new approach to forecasting species distributions accounting for within-species genetic variation and spatial autocorrelation using the model species Arabidopsis thaliana. Here, co-author Dr. F. Xavier Picó gives us a behind-the-scenes look at the study.

Link to study: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1755-0998.13024

Arabidopsis thaliana in the wild. Photo provided by Xavier Picó

What led to your interest in this topic / what was the motivation for this study? 
Climate change models ought to incorporate more realistic species’ attributes to better understand their response in predicted and probably inevitable warming scenarios for the near future. In other words, we need to model the demographic, ecological, genetic and evolutionary processes that account for changes in distribution range mediated by warming. However, these data are hard to obtain at large spatial scales even for a single species, which seriously limits our understanding of the impact of global climate change on biodiversity. Our motivation was to develop a model to overcome such limitations using long-term existing data for an annual plant that, interestingly, may be the result of the suite of processes mentioned above, such as genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation of data.

What difficulties did you run into along the way? 
This work is the result of a collaborative effort among scientists from different disciplines, including genetics, ecology and mathematics, that in some cases worked together for the very first time. We had to find the way to speak the same language to achieve a common objective from planning to execution. In a way, we taught each other as learned from each other throughout the development of this work. Although this can be regarded as a difficulty, it was also an extremely rewarding process to see how we all pulled off the project.

What is the biggest or most surprising innovation highlighted in this study? 
From a conceptual viewpoint, the heterogeneity that any species has – due to historical, demographic, ecological and genetic factors – can no longer be overlooked whatever the research question and goal. Molecular markers allow us to tackle such inherent heterogeneity beyond our full comprehension of the underlying forces accounting for it. From a technical viewpoint, spatial Bayesian models take spatial autocorrelation of data into account. Ignoring spatial autocorrelation is a huge problem when it comes to the correct interpretation of spatial models. Handling these two key elements at once represents the most remarkable innovation of this study.

Moving forward, what are the next steps for this research?
With no doubt, the most important next step is to include demographic and evolutionary processes explicitly into global climate change models. We need to expand our current Bayesian framework to include dispersal, establishment of new populations, and local adaptation in a context of rapid environmental and land-use changes fuelled by global climate change. These fundamental processes, which can be modelled and/or parameterized with empirical data, will confer realism and power to model predictions. Only realistic models will generate an array of likely global climate change scenarios upon which we will be able to pose working hypotheses and appropriate actions to mitigate the impacts of global climate change on biodiversity.

Photo provided by Xavier Picó

What would your message be for students about to start their first research projects in this topic? 
Learning in science is a tough process, but extremely rewarding. Try to learn from the best to acquire solid foundations. Nevertheless, do not forget that your particular view on a given problem may open up new paths to keep making progress on the discipline. Recall what all renowned artists normally do: they first copy the old masters to learn the techniques to end up innovating and developing their own artistic style. Innovation can only be done when one understands the potential and limitations that any technique has.

What have you learned about methods and resources development over the course of this project? 
Complex problems require imaginative solutions that, for common people, can only be addressed by gathering together professionals from different disciplines sharing similar interests. In addition, it is important to bear in mind that the biological knowledge of the study species is of paramount importance to assess the value and impact of new methodologies. Inevitably, we believe quite often that any new method developed by us might become a panacea to solve multiple problems. Although this enthusiasm is necessary to move forward, it is very important to clearly detect the caveats and limitations of the methods and resources developed. In our particular case, the knowledge of the study species across the region allowed us to identify when the model outcomes were interpretable and when they could be biased.

Describe the significance of this research for the general scientific community in one sentence.
Promising progress is being made to improve models that will allow us to figure out realistically the future of biodiversity in a context of warming, which seems to be inevitable.

Describe the significance of this research for your scientific community in one sentence.
Genetic heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation, the result of multiple forces acting in concert, can be handled and interpreted to better understand the response of any species to global climate change.

Citation
Joaquín Martínez‐Minaya, David Conesa, Marie‐Josée Fortin, Carlos Alonso‐Blanco, F. Xavier Picó, & Arnald Marcer. (2019). A hierarchical Bayesian Beta regression approach to study the effects of geographical genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation on species distribution range shifts. Molecular Ecology Resources, 19(4), 929-943. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1755-0998.13024